Summary
This document is intended to provide an overview of where key races currently stand, how the political environment compares to that of previous midterms, and what experts are predicting could happen this fall. We have updated the data and analysis presented in our prior edition circulated on Aug. 16, 2018, and included new information regarding potential committee chairmanships and leadership assignments.
The upcoming elections on Tuesday, Nov. 6, are the first midterms under President Donald Trump’s tenure. According to professional campaign advisers and election watchers, the 2018 midterms could bring seismic change to Washington, D.C. and influence the actions of the elected officials that make up the political class. With the entire U.S. House of Representatives and 35 of the seats in the U.S. Senate on the ballot, the stakes for both parties are high. While both chambers are in play, power in the House seems much more likely to shift towards Democrats, with 86-108 races deemed “in play” and the overwhelming majority of those are currently held by Republicans. Control of the House seems well within reach for Democrats, but the Senate map is much more favorable to Republicans and the party is likely to maintain a slim majority.
WHG compiled projections from CNN Key Races, the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, RealClearPolitics, and Inside Elections on contested House and Senate races. In the House chart, a seat’s rating is based Wynne Health Group’s aggregation, reflecting the consensus of at least three of the five projections. Seats that did not appear on at least three projections were not included. The asterisk denotes where only three of the five projections concurred. The absence of an asterisk means at least four of the five outlets concurred on the race rating. These are based on projections available as of Oct 12., 2018. The Senate chart reflects the projections from all five outlets on the contested Senate races.