WHG - Weekly, April 12-16

Summary

With Congress back in session after a two-week recess, negotiations over the multi-trillion American Jobs Plan (i.e., traditional infrastructure) will intensify over the coming six weeks. Today, likely as part of President Joe Biden’s push for bipartisanship, the White House released individual fact sheets that highlight the infrastructure needs of each state and the national investments proposed in the plan. Biden is scheduled to meet with a bipartisan group of lawmakers to discuss his infrastructure proposal later today. Despite the Biden Administration’s bipartisan pitch, we anticipate Democrats will ultimately resort to budget reconciliation, as they cannot afford to risk losing the support of progressive Democrats in order to appeal to enough Republicans to clear the 60-vote threshold in the Senate. On this point, it is notable that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has already expressed his caucus’s opposition to the plan.

If budget reconciliation is pursued, congressional Democrats will either have to amend the FY 2021 budget resolution (an unprecedented move recently authorized by the Senate parliamentarian) or adopt an FY 2022 resolution, either of which would provide reconciliation instructions to individual committees (i.e., report date, dollar amount of budgetary change). House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) recently said that Democrats’ push for infrastructure will likely be split into two bills – traditional infrastructure in the American Jobs Plan and human infrastructure in Biden’s forthcoming American Family Plan (i.e., health care and child care reforms). Whether the two House bills are combined into a single reconciliation package or approved separately remains to be seen.

Based on Democratic leaders’ statements thus far, we foresee the following tentative timeline under which they will pursue their infrastructure goals:

• April-May – House Democrats will work to modify their $1.5 trillion Moving Forward Act (R. 2, 116^th) to align with the American Jobs Plan. The deadline for Members to submit requests for highway and transit projects to the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure is April 23.
• Mid-April – Biden is expected to unveil his American Family Plan focused on human infrastructure. With regard to the health care components, House Democrats will likely build on existing legislation, including the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Enhancement Act (R. 1425, 116^th), Elijah E. Cummings Lower Drug Costs Now Act (H.R. 3, 116^th), and several bills introduced by House Energy and Commerce Democrats that expand upon the Affordable Care Act.
• May – House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chair Peter DeFazio (D-OR) said he expects his committee will complete its markup of the American Jobs Plan legislation in May, possibly the week of May 24 when the House is scheduled to conduct committee work and before the one-week Memorial Day recess scheduled for May (May 31-June 4).
• July-August – Speaker Pelosi intends to pass the American Jobs Plan by July 4 but signaled floor action in the House on both the American Jobs Plan and American Family Plan could slip to after that and potentially conclude closer to the August Recess.
• August-September – As noted, Congress is scheduled to adjourn in early August, but the infrastructure work could delay or cut short the recess. The Senate will likely vote on the two infrastructure packages in late summer/early fall. Any amendments to the expected House-passed packages would have to be approved in the House.