Summary
You’re Invited – WHG 5-Year Anniversary Party
Please join us at our DC office on December 1st to celebrate Wynne Health Group’s 5-Year Anniversary and the holiday season. RSVP and view more information here. We hope to see you there!
Election Preview
The 2022 Midterm Elections are tomorrow. Democrats remain at risk of losing control of Congress, especially in the House where polls indicate that Republicans have a decisive advantage. The race in the Senate remains neck and neck. Experts attribute the public’s growing concern with the economy as a strong motivator for potentially steering more voters away from Democrats. The Federal Reserve most recently increased interest rates again on November 2 as inflation has remained elevated, though the U.S. notably added over 250,000 jobs in October. Still, growing uncertainty both domestically and abroad may have some voters seeking new leadership at the federal level.
Regardless of the outcome, substantial legislative action on health care remains unlikely in the next Congress. In a divided Congress, Democrats and Republicans may find bipartisan areas of overlap to be in short supply aside from current priority issues such as mental health. In a Republican-controlled Congress, even if Republicans are able to advance partisan legislation through, they will still be faced with the veto power of the presidency.
Additional perspective on potential shifts in House and Senate dynamics follow.
House
Democrats currently have a 9-vote majority in the House (221-212 with two vacancies). All House seats are up for re-election. Prior to the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, Republicans were widely expected to take the House. Republicans are still expected to win the majority, but many races have narrowed. Pollsters are taking a much more cautious approach to forecasting these races. The majority will likely be decided by roughly 12 “toss up” races (VA-2, AZ-2, AK, NY-19, PA-7, CA-27, TX-15, IA-3, OR-5, CA-22, KS-3, and NM-2). Republicans will need to gain six seats to win the majority in the House.
Due mainly to retirements, we expect to see leadership changes in key House Committees. For example, three members are vying for the position of top Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee, due to the retirement of Rep Kevin Brady (R-TX). We also expect leadership changes in the House Budget Committee and House Oversight and Reform Committee. If the Republicans do take the House, Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy is widely expected to take the Speaker position, with Congressman Steve Scalise moving into the Majority Leader role. The position for Majority Whip is a race between NRCC Chair Tom Emmer (R-MO), Rep Jim Banks (R-IN) and Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-GA).
Senate
The Senate is currently 50-50, with Vice President Harris as the tie-breaker. Fourteen seats held by Democrats and 21 seats held by Republicans are up for election. Six of these seats are open due to retiring Senators (NC, PA, AL, OH, VT, and MO). Democrats cannot afford to net a single loss in order to keep control of the Senate
Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) is anticipated to become the top Democrats on the Senate Appropriations Committee, following the retirement of Sen. Pat Leahy (D-VT). If Sen. Murray becomes chair of the Appropriations Committee, then Sen Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is next in lead to lead the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee. However, he would likely have to decide between leading the Senate Budget Committee or the HELP Committee. The current Republican lead on HELP, Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC), is retiring this Congress. The next Republican in line to take over the Committee is Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY). This could be a difficult dynamic if Rand Paul and Bernie Sanders are at the helm.